Imagery suggests Iran missile base works

TLDR

• BBC Verify reports satellite images suggest new digging and buildings at Iran's Garmdareh and Shahroud bases.¹
• At least 12 other military sites show signs of repairs, according to the BBC analysis.¹
• Analysts quoted say the work may be underground missile production or storage; one says deception is unlikely.¹

BBC Verify reported on 6 November that Iran appears to be undertaking significant new construction near at least two of its major missile sites, and repairing bases damaged by months of US and Israeli air strikes, based on analysis of satellite images.¹ Analysts at British intelligence company MAIAR, who reviewed November imagery, told BBC Verify that digging and new buildings are visible at the Garmdareh military base in Karaj, near Tehran, and at the Shahroud base in the north.¹

Why it matters: the imagery is being used to test official claims about how badly strikes damaged Iran's missile industry, and the analysts quoted offer several possible purposes for the new structures rather than one settled answer.¹

Driving the news:

• Karaj: BBC Verify says satellite images appear to show significant excavation, multiple vehicles, and improvements at the nearby airbase. A research analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) said the images appear to show "a new portal for an underground facility".¹
• Karaj, Janes: analysis from Janes indicates a new facility under construction, including tunnel entrances and structures that could mean an expansion of nearby damaged or destroyed missile bases, or could be for storage or other purposes.¹
• Shahroud: images appear to show significant excavation. A former CIA analyst who focused on Iran said the work could be related to missile production, and that the Revolutionary Guards are probably trying to move production facilities underground because the nearby air base has been targeted several times.¹
• Repairs: at least 12 other sites, including missile complexes and air bases, appear to show repairs. New roofs have been built on destroyed buildings at the Kermanshah missile base, and debris has been cleared at the Parchin complex. At Parchin's Taleghan 2 facility, analysts said damaged buildings were levelled and the aftermath of an attack on an underground bunker was repaired and reinforced with concrete.¹
• Qom: a MAIAR analyst identified new construction and excavations outside tunnel entrances near the city, close to the Fordo enrichment complex.¹

The big picture: a MAIAR analyst said Iran has "a pattern of moving infrastructure underground to protect them from further strikes". A defence analyst and former head of the Irish military said underground construction has the added benefit of making it "harder for outside observers to assess the extent and operational status". A Janes analyst said the work is unlikely to be an attempt to deceive foreign intelligence agencies, because such a project "would be costly and may achieve little". An analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said the purpose is "to better defend itself against future attacks".¹

The other side: BBC Verify notes that a Pentagon spokesperson previously said the US had "destroyed up to 90% of Iran's drone, ballistic missile, and naval industrial base". Iran claims it retains large stockpiles, and BBC Verify says footage broadcast on state television this week claimed to show dozens of missiles at the entrance to an underground facility in southern Iran.¹

Single-source note: every finding rests on BBC Verify's reporting of MAIAR, FPRI and Janes analysis, and none of the imagery was reviewed here. Asharq Al-Awsat, the New York Post and OODAloop carried the story as rewrites of the BBC report and are not independent confirmation.