AP imagery tracks Iran's base strikes

· OSINT

TLDR

  • AP counts 115+ strikes claimed by Iran or allied militias that damaged structures at 26 sites, using imagery and officials.1
  • AP says Iran hit radar sites and hangars first, then warehouses and housing; Central Command did not comment.1
  • AP says imagery providers with US contracts delayed or blocked releases at officials' request, until Airbus OneAtlas supplied images.1

An Associated Press analysis published on 31 October says Iran's strikes on US-linked sites in the Middle East began with early-warning systems and aircraft hangars before widening to warehouses, troop housing and other buildings.1 The AP says it verified damage using satellite imagery from multiple providers and spoke to four regional officials. It counts more than 115 drone or missile strikes, claimed by Iran or Iranian-backed militias, that damaged or destroyed structures at 26 military bases and other sites through August.1

Why it matters: the piece shows how constrained open imagery work on this war has been. The AP says major providers with US contracts blocked or delayed public release of imagery at the request of American officials, which left few ways to confirm strike damage visually until imagery could be obtained from Airbus-owned OneAtlas.1 At Camp Buehring in Kuwait, high-quality imagery from reliable providers was not available until late August.1

Driving the news:

  • The AP says Iran destroyed enclosures protecting US radar systems at Camp Arifjan in Kuwait and Naval Support Activity Bahrain within two days of the war's start in late February, and hit portable radars at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan.1
  • A radar in Jordan was hit and said to be destroyed. The AP says it was one of 13 held by the US Army worldwide, according to the manufacturer Raytheon, and that budget documents put each at about half a billion dollars. A radar in Qatar was damaged significantly, but the AP says it is unclear whether it was destroyed.1
  • In the first month, Iran carried out more than 50 successful strikes on 18 locations with US equipment, prioritising areas with aircraft. Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait was struck at least 30 times, damaging or destroying at least 15 hangars, numerous warehouses and 10 buildings near a residential area.1
  • Most Camp Buehring hangars were made inoperable. More than 30 structures there were damaged or destroyed between the halt of imagery in early March and its reappearance in August, and the AP confirmed strikes in March, April, May and July.12
  • An Iranian strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in March damaged the rear of an E-3 Sentry. A Congressional Research Service report updated in October says 15 US aircraft were damaged on regional bases.1

The big picture: two regional officials told the AP the US has moved many assets out of the Persian Gulf, including aircraft, air defence and communications systems.1 The AP places its findings against a possible return to hostilities: President Donald Trump is considering new strikes after Tuesday's midterm elections, and Tehran has vowed major retaliation.1 Iran International reports that Iran's supreme leader called on Saturday for an "immediate and effective response without geographic limitations" to any threat, and the armed forces chief of staff said a wider target list was being prepared, while Qatari and Pakistani mediators work on an agreement.3

The other side: Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell told the AP that US forces and bases are "well protected" and the military is "stronger than ever".1 US Central Command did not comment on the findings, usually citing operational security.12 RAND's Raphael Cohen told the AP that strikes were much heavier against Iran and that American equipment losses were inevitable.1

Single-source note: all three sources trace to the one AP analysis. Ynetnews carries it as AP copy and Iran International summarises it. The officials are anonymous, and the strike count covers only strikes claimed by Iran or allied militias, through August. The images were not independently reviewed here beyond their published captions. Ynetnews captions one image as showing a THAAD radar struck on 1 March at Muwaffaq Salti, while the AP text quoted here does not name the radar type. Its caption for a 28 July Ali Al Salem image also says Airbus provided it but credits Planet Labs.2

Sources

  1. Iran targeted US air defenses then hit aircraft and buildings on Mideast bases, AP analysis finds (ABC News (AP))
  2. First the radars, then the rest: Iran's methodical assault on US bases (Ynetnews (AP))
  3. Iran targeted US radars first, then wider base strikes, AP finds (Iran International)