ISW says Ukraine's jet-drone interception rate slipped to about 74 per cent during Starshield disruptions

TLDR

• ISW said the interception rate for jet-powered drones fell from 77 to about 74 per cent during Starshield disruptions.¹
• The disruptions ran 14 to 24 October; ISW says interceptor drones largely need Starshield to reach the required speeds.¹
• Euronews reports Ukrainian officials lifted the restrictions on 24 October; Business Insider and Euronews repeat ISW's figures.²³

The Institute for the Study of War said in its 25 October assessment that Ukraine's interception rate for Russian jet-powered drones fell from 77 per cent to about 74 per cent during Starshield service disruptions between 14 and 24 October.¹ It says Ukrainian interceptor drones largely depend on Starshield to reach the speeds needed against jet-powered targets, and that the other options are F-16 missiles or guns, plus turrets in Kyiv and its oblast.¹ ISW adds that innovative jet-powered interceptors will be needed over the long term.¹

Business Insider, in a 27 October report headlined with the 74 per cent figure, and Euronews both build on ISW's assessment.²³ Euronews adds that early September interception rates were about 60 per cent, that some units report rates above 80 per cent, which reflects those units rather than a nationwide figure, and that the restrictions were lifted on 24 October according to Ukrainian officials.³ It also puts the F-Jet 80 interceptor, which targets about $7,000 per unit, against $20,000 to $70,000 for other high-speed interceptors and about $1 million for an F-16 missile.³

The 77 and 74 per cent figures are ISW's assessment and the later outlets do not supply independent data. ISW's text is dated 25 October, so the figures are two days old at the time of the reports, which are dated 27 October.

Why it matters: the figures suggest Ukraine's counter-jet-drone performance is sensitive to satellite connectivity, with a three-point fall during an 11-day disruption, while Euronews notes that some units report rates above 80 per cent.¹³